Seahawks vs. Broncos: A Statistical Analysis Part 3

By: Jackson Safon

Welcome to the third and final part of my statistical analysis of the Super Bowl! If the last 2,000 or so words has gotten you down about the Seahawks’ chances in Super Bowl XLVIII, the next 1,000 will get your hopes up as defense is where we make our money.

Broncos Defense

The Broncos defense is in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed and points allowed, but the question often raised is, are these yards and points only allowed because their opponents are always playing catch-up? This does in fact seem to be true, as the Broncos are in the top half of the league (although just barely) in defensive DVOA. Furthermore, in weighted DVOA, which as a reminder, reflects how teams are playing at the end of the season, they are in the top 10. Some would argue that the Broncos played against a somewhat easy defensive schedule, but over half of their games were against teams in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. In these games however, the Broncos played rather poorly, allowing 27 points per game. One of the issues for the Seahawks will be that the Broncos are a top ten defensive unit in terms of stopping the run in both yards allowed and DVOA. This could be problematic, as if the Broncos can stop the run with only seven in the box, the Seahawks will struggle mightily on offense. The Broncos are 21^st against the pass however in DVOA, so that is an area Russell Wilson and the passing attack will simply have to exploit in order to have a chance in the big game.

Terrance Knighton has been a beast on the inside for the Broncos defense

Getty Images 

Seahawks Defense

Here it is. A long time coming. I mentioned earlier that the Broncos have the sixth best offensive DVOA since the creation of this system in 1989, but the Seahawks have the seventh best defensive DVOA in the same time period. Additionally, while the Broncos offense has regressed to the mean somewhat over the second half of the season, the Seahawks defense has actually gotten better as the season has progressed. Their defensive DVOA for the whole season was -25.8% (remember, since positive numbers represent more scoring, defensive DVOA is better when it is negative), but their weighted DVOA was -30.0%. While the gap between the rest of the league and the Broncos offense dropped to less than one percent after DVOA was weighted, the Seahawks defense actually increased their gap on the rest of the league in terms of defensive dominance. Not surprisingly, the ‘Hawks had the best ranked pass defensive DVOA, as well as lead the league in pass yards allowed, total yards allowed, and interceptions. They were the best defense in the NFL this season. Period. End of conversation. Not only were they dominant, they seemed to get up for the bigger games. The Seahawks allowed 14.4 points per game over the course of the season, but in their nine games against top 20 offenses, they only allowed 13.67 per game. And in their four games against top 10 offenses, the allowed a mere 8.5 points per game. That is barely over one score. For an entire game. Against top 10 offenses.

 Look for Michael Bennett to have a big impact on disrupting Manning's rhythm.

SportsKings 

So now that most of the stats have been hashed out, it is time to do some true comparison and to determine who has the pure, statistical advantage. The Broncos offensive DVOA when weighted is 27.1% and the Seahawks defensive DVOA when weighted is -30.0%. This gives the Seahawks an advantage of 2.9% so far. The best part about the Broncos offense vs. the Seahawks defense is that it is strength on strength. The Broncos had the best passing season in the history of the NFL, and the Seahawks pass defense is one of the best in the history of the NFL. The Seahawks weighted, offensive DVOA is 8.7%, and the Broncos weighted, defensive DVOA is    -5.6%, which gives the ‘Hawks another advantage, this time of 3.1%. Those are definitely good gaps, but what I think brings the two teams a bit closer together is the fact that it is strength on strength on both sides of the ball. In addition to the Broncos offense and Seahawks defense being the Yin and Yang of each other, the Broncos defense and ‘Hawks offense are the same. The Broncos have a top 10 run stopping unit, and the Seahawks’ have one of the better running games in football. Because of this, the game could be determined by which team more successfully goes away from their strength, whether that be the Broncos running game or the Seahawks’ passing game.

My final note is not a statistical one but a matchup one: weather. Adverse weather can come in different forms, whether it be rain, wind, cold, snow, or whatever else. I think rain and cold are two elements that are sort of a wash, and don’t give an advantage to either team. Wind and snow however are much more powerful elements and could change the game completely. I believe snow would give the advantage to the Broncos, because their strength is offense, and snow generally helps offenses. The reason being it is much harder to cut in snow, and since offensive players know where they are going, it can be hard for defensive backs to keep up in the snow. Wind on the other hand would be a massive advantage for the Seahawks. While the Broncos have shown the ability to run the ball, their strength is obviously in the passing game, and that is a place where wind can do a ton of damage. Just look at the Sunday Night Football game in November where the Broncos lost to the Patriots. The wind was swirling the entire night (trust me, I was there), and it was such a big factor that in overtime, Bill Belichick chose to take the wind instead of the ball after winning the coin toss. In that game, Peyton Manning had his worst game of the year by far, throwing for only 150 yards on 36 attempts. He played terrible and his receivers were having a tough time locating the ball in the wind as well. To reiterate: snow is bad and wind is good.

           

Just remember, in any game, and especially a game as big of the Super Bowl, fluky plays can happen. We have seen it before in the Super Bowl with plays such as the David Tyree catch-on-the-helmet and the crazy holding in the end zone for a safety against the Patriots in 2012. Whether it be crazy penalties, or tipped balls, or fumbles at the goal line, anything can happen and when one of these plays does happen, you can pretty much through all these stats out the window. Because of that, I believe the most important statistic in this game will be turnovers. Winning the turnover battle will be key, but also making sure to win the turnover battle when the Seahawks are in their own and their opponents 20-yard line. It is going to be an amazing game.  

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Takeaways: Seahawks Are NFC Champs

By Jackson Safon

In an unbelievable game, the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 in the NFC Championship and are now headed to New York for Super Bowl XLVIII. First of all, props to the Niners on a great season and a great game, they battled hard and were close to winning that game. As much as Seattle hates Kaepernick, he played an outstanding game through three quarters and isn’t going away any time soon. The Seahawks however closed the game much better than the Niners, forcing three turnovers in the fourth quarter and outscoring San Francisco 10-0 in the final frame. So many contributors on both sides of the ball, so many big plays, and so many lucky bounces for both teams: unbelievable game that 100% lived up to the hype.

1. Seahawks’ biggest strength holds true

Seattle’s defense was its staple all year and it showed through when it mattered most, the fourth quarter. Zero points and three turnovers. That is dominance in the clutch. So many players came up big it’s hard to quantify and hard to name them all, but a few that come to mind are Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, and Michael Bennett. Those three guys played out of their minds, and did so at all different levels of the defense. Bennett was the most consistent pass-rusher the ‘Hawks had today and came up with a strip sack as well as the fumble recovery on the ASS (Avril Strip Sack, credit to @HawkBlogger). Wagner was a run stopper extraordinaire throughout the whole game, helping hold Frank Gore to 14 rushes on 11 carries, and Chancellor laid the wood a few times as well as came up with a big interception. Kaepernick played great for most of the game and was virtually unstoppable when pulling it down and running, but the defense was too much for him in the end and Sherman’s tip to Malcolm Smith (reminiscent of his tip to Earl Thomas earlier in the year) sealed the game.   

Kam Chancellor came up with a huge interception in the fourth quarter.

SFGate.com

2. Three offensive stars

Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Marshawn Lynch led the offense to its best showing in weeks. Wilson struggled a bit early, but eventually hit the big play to Baldwin down the field and most importantly, didn’t turn the ball over after the first play where he was stripped by Aldon Smith. Baldwin was my prediction for offensive player of the game and he didn’t disappoint with six catches for 106 yards as well as 109 return yards. Marshawn Lynch however was truly the best offensive player on the ‘Hawks, as he has been all season. While I didn’t think his late touchdown run against the Saints deserved the title “BeastQuake 2.0”, his 40 yard touchdown run yesterday absolutely can claim that title. It was the longest run against the 49ers in the Jim Harbaugh era and Lynch broke the Niners streak of 22 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. While 23 points will probably not be enough to beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl, the offense took massive steps to get back to where we are accustomed to seeing it.

Doug Baldwin had the best game of his career on Sunday night.

SFExaminer

3. Ten Stats/plays that stood out

-Frank Gore: 11 rushes for 14 yards

-Colin Kaepernick 11 rushes for 130 yards

-Three turnovers in the fourth quarter for the 49ers.

-51 yard completion to Baldwin relatively early in the game: I thought this gave the offense confidence it hadn’t had in weeks.

-Marshawn Lynch 22 rushes for 109 yards (4.95 yards per carry).

-Russell Wilson 5 rushes for 0 yards, Darrell Bevell needs to let him loose in the Super Bowl.

-Decision to go for it on 4^th and 7 instead of kick a 52 yard field goal. Not the call I would’ve made but had faith in Carroll once it was made.

-Both teams had the exact same number of total yards: 308.

-Luck factor seemed to be even, both teams had weird bounces and plays go their way (fumbles bounced the Niners way until Bowman injury/strip).

-Percy Harvin is coming back.

4. Initial Super Bowl Thoughts

The Seahawks will face Peyton Manning and the Broncos in two weeks and they will have to try and slow down the best offense in the history of the NFL. Peyton Manning had more passing touchdowns than any other team had TOTAL touchdowns. He broke the passing yardage record. They had five position players with double digit touchdowns. The gap between their offense and the second best offense (Bears) in points per game was about the same gap as between the second place offense and the second worst offense (Texans). Their offense is ridiculous and can score on you in any and every way imaginable. Yet all that being said, I think the Seahawks match up PERFECTLY to stop them. They have a shutdown group of defensive backs to slow down the electric set of receivers the Broncos have, they can put pressure on the quarterback with just four rushers, and they have the ability to stop the run as well. The offense will have to perform a bit better, but the Broncos haven’t faced a defense even close to what they are going to see in the Super Bowl.

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Takeaways: Seahawks Clobber the Jaguars

By Jackson Safon

The 20.5 points that the Seahawks were favored by was one of the biggest point spreads in NFL history, and the Hawks covered with ease. The final score was 45-17 and this game was in hand from the get-go. The Hawks dominance showed early as they went into the locker room at halftime with a 34-0 lead. The performance was dominant in all phases of the game, which allowed Tarvaris Jackson, Christine Michael, and the rest of the reserves to get in the game and show what they could do. Not surprisingly, they played outstanding and Jackson showed that he is better than any of the Jaguars quarterbacks. However, even in a dominant win, there are always things both positive and negative to take away.

1. In Russ We Trust
It took two games, but the passing attack is back. Russell Wilson was in sync early and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell opened up the offense much more in this game. Wilson was spreading it around to all of his receivers, and the passing game was as dynamic as it has ever been, leading to four touchdowns from Wilson (and one more from Tarvaris Jackson later in the game). Furthermore, Wilson averaged 9.6 yards per attempt, which is a very good number. For a team that doesn’t look to throw the ball 50 times a game, efficiency in the passing game is very important, and the yards per attempt stat is an excellent measure of the way Russell Wilson is playing. Besides an interception that was dropped by a receiver, Wilson looked fantastic.

Sidney Rice caught two of Russell Wilson's four touchdown passes on the day.

AP Photo -Stephen Brashear

2. The Defense is Freakishly Good

I wrote about the defense last week, but it cannot be said enough times: the Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL and it isn’t close. Their defense could shape up to being one of the best of all time. And this is just the first week with Chris Clemons and Brandon Browner. With pass rushing specialist Bruce Irvin coming back in week five, quarterbacks better be on the lookout. I understand that the Hawks played the Jaguars this week, so defensive dominance was to be expected, but that doesn’t make this defense any less unstoppable. Seven different players had a tackle for loss, and Michael Bennett and Clint McDonald combined for three sacks. The Hawks defense is elite in every phase and shouldn’t be beat by anyone.

 

Clinton McDonald recorded 1.5 sacks on the day for the Seahawks defense.

Steven Bisig - USA Today Sports

 

3. The Seahawks Have Incredible Depth

The Seahawks are arguably the deepest team on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Tarvaris Jackson came in to replace Russell Wilson and promptly went 7/8 for 129 yards and a score. Christine Michael is electric in the backfield and will be the successor to Marshawn Lynch in a few years. Every member of the defense played well. There are more than a few teams that Tarvaris Jackson could start for right now. The depth on both sides of the ball could prove crucial later in the season as injuries for all teams begin to pile up.

 

Marshawn Lynch didn't have a huge day on the ground for the Seahawks, but the team didn't need an amazing game from him as they faced the lowly Jaguars.

Seahawks.com

 

4. Third Down Efficiency Needs to Improve

The Hawks were a mere 4/10 on third downs, which against an elite defense would be acceptable, but the Jaguars are average at best. For the season, the Hawks need to be around 50% and above on third downs, so 40% against a relatively weak defense is something to think about. No need for concern or panic, but this is just something to keep an eye on moving forward as the matchups for the Hawks become tougher with the Texans and Colts coming up.

 

5. The Seahawks are the Best Team in the NFC

And it isn’t close. Not only have the Seahawks dominated so far this season, but most other potential contenders have faltered. The Falcons, Packers, and 49ers all lost Sunday. The Bears and Saints are both undefeated, but it’s hard to say they could even come close to the Hawks after the dominance showed through three weeks. The Hawks still need to play with the proverbial chip on their shoulder, however, as the most wins the Hawks have ever had in a season where they started 3-0 was 10. If the Hawks can continue to play at the level they are capable of, anything short of a Super Bowl berth would be a disappointment.

 

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Takeaways: Seahawks Beat the Niners

By Jackson Safon

That my friends, was a good old fashioned butt-whooping. The Seahawks not only beat their archrival, the San Francisco 49ers, but they beat them handily. Now over the previous two games against the Niners, the Seahawks have outscored them 71-16. I had the privilege of going to this game (Shout out to Zack Packer and his family for taking me) and I can tell you firsthand that it was every bit as loud as it seemed. The noise was so deafening that when you walked from the concourse into the actual seating area the noise hit you like a wall. It literally slowed me down. I truly believe the 12^th man is one of, if not the most impressive and helpful home field advantage in all of sports today. I can also say that I am now a proud, world record holder as the members of Century Link Field broke the record for loudest stadium ever early in the third quarter. Well done 12’s, well done. All of that being said, after every game there are positives and negatives, so as always, I will help try and determine what is important to take from our most recent game.

It was a wet and sloppy game, but the Seahawks pulled out the win in the end.

ESPN

1. This defense is going to be legendary
In Cliff Avril’s first game as a Seahawks, he played great, getting consistent pressure on Kaepernick, and recording a sack-fumble. Michael Bennett and K.J. Wright recorded sacks as well, and the defensive line was consistently getting in the backfield and making Kaepernick uncomfortable. In addition to the sacks, the Hawks defense had three interceptions (all three healthy members of the Legion of Boom had one) and two forced fumbles. The Hawks defense has allowed 10 points total so far this year, to two pretty strong offenses with dynamic young quarterbacks. Plus, this is all without Bruce Irvin, Chris Clemons, and Brandon Browner. Once those three rejoin the defensive unit, I don’t know how anyone will be able to score on the Hawks. This defense is already the best in the NFL today, and when fully healthy, I could see this unit being one of the best all-time.

2. Beastmode is fine
Marshawn Lynch silenced all concerns about the running game following the week one struggle against the Panthers, as he ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns against one of the leagues better front seven’s in the 49ers. Granted, it took him 28 carries to reach the 98 yards, but he still ran the ball pretty effectively, and this success is what allowed Russell Wilson to be much more successful later in the game. Although the loss of Michael Robinson will hurt a bit, I think it is clear that we don’t have to worry too much about the running game.

Marshawn Lynch has destroyed the 49ers the last four times he has faced them.

Steven Bisig - USA Today Sports

3. Offensive line play continues to be questionable
The offensive line was shaky once again, leading to four sacks on Russell Wilson and constant pressure in his face as well. I believe this is one of the reasons that the passing game and offense as a whole got off to a slow start, which is something that needs to be fixed if this team is going to win a championship. Additionally, Russell Okung was forced to leave the game because of a turf toe injury. This will hurt the offensive line even more. However, it will be a good chance for guys like Paul McQuistan and Alvin Bailey to prove that they belong in this league. The offensive line play must improve if the Seahawks offense and specifically the Seahawks passing game is going to perform at the elite level we all expect.

Paul McQuistan will have to step up in the absence of Russell Okung.

Seahawks.com

4. Are we the best team in the NFL?
I know it is only week two, but the past two times the Seahawks have played the defending NFC champions, they have outscored them by a combined 55 points. Furthermore, if you matchup the ‘Hawks against any of the NFC’s best teams such as the Packers, Saints, or Falcons, I would expect the ‘Hawks to win all of those games and I don’t think they would be all that close. Obviously, the ‘Hawks had to squeak by the Packers last season in the famous “Fail Mary” game, and we lost to the Falcons in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, but I think that by the time the playoffs roll around this year, we will be able to beat them handily. Think about it. Not only do we get back the three defensive starters I mentioned earlier, but potentially as soon as week 7 we can get PERCY HARVIN back. I am not sure if you realize how big of a help that will be to the offense, but I can assure you, his dynamic ability will change the offense completely. The Hawks are the best team in the NFC in my mind, which would leave teams in the AFC that we would have to match up against in the Super Bowl. With the Patriots and Texans at 2-0 by very slim margins, and the Ravens struggling to beat the Browns this week, it would seem that the Broncos are the logical team to make it out of the AFC. This would be a very intriguing matchup and one that I think would make for a much closer game than any team the Seahawks played in the NFC. Could we beat the Broncos in a game? Sure. But are we better than them right now? I can’t say for sure if that is true or not. In other words, I am avoiding the question that I myself posed. But what I can say is that the Seahawks are one of the two best teams in the entire NFL, and should only get better as the season goes on.

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SEA vs. SF: Halftime Thoughts

By Marshall Cherrington

Well I haven't seen a first half of football like that in a long time. A safety, terrible refereeing and an hour delay later, the Seahawks are clinging to a 5-0 lead. Here are my halftime thoughts.

- The offensive line needs to figure it out in the second half. With Russell Okung's return questionable, the Seahawks running backs will need to be able to chip Aldon Smith and the 49ers pass rushers effectively. Paul McQuistan will also need to put his big boy hat on and try and move a couple of inches to block Aldon Smith.

- If the Seahawks are going to win this game, it's going to be by means of the ground game. Marshawn Lynch has had a solid game so far and Robert Turbin would have 25 yards or so extra added on to his rushing total if Breno Giacomini didn't commit another boneheaded penalty. Haven't seen that one before. To Giacomini's credit. it looked like a terrible call by the refs.

- Russell Wilson needs to focus up. Multiple throws have been off target, even when he hasn't been under pressure. His accuracy wasn't on point in the preseason and I might start to get worried if I don't see an improvement here soon. However, he has been under pressure multiple times and I think Russell will work some magic in the second half and escape a couple of these collapsing pockets. He also needs to keep the dang ball on the read option. Did you see how open he was a couple of those times? man, he could have 50 yards rushing by now.

- I'm loving this defensive line. Avril is getting a great pass rush and absolutely destroyed the right tackle on a nasty bull rush in the second quarter. Michael Bennett has also been impressive and had a great shoestring sack of Colin Kaepernick. I'm expecting at least two more sacks in the second half. Oh, and when Irvin and Clemons get back, this is going to be a scary defensive line. Maybe the best in the NFL.

- The secondary is playing great tonight and will have to keep doing what they're doing to win this game. Walter Thurmond's number, 28, might need to be added to that Legion of Boom doormat that the four defensive backs have. What a play on that Earl Thomas interception. My pick to click in the second half: Big Rich. Maybe an interception or two? We'll see.

Here's to a killer second half.

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