Mariners Bold Predictions Revisited and Our Team Awards

By Jackson Safon

Before the season, I made a series of bold predictions for the Mariners 2013 season. I warned that the predictions would be bold. I did. I came closer on some of these than others, but before I get ridiculed on the predictions I want it to be clear that I warned you that they would be bold. That being said, the short version is the predictions were pretty far off. Enjoy laughing at how wrong I was.

Prediction 1: “Justin Smoak will lead the team in RBI”
Smoak was 30 RBI short of the team lead as Kendrys Morales had 80. The fact is I was dead wrong. But looking closer, how wrong was I really? If you pro-rate Justin Smoak’s numbers from when he returned from injury, he would have led the team in RBI. So really I wasn’t that far off. Okay I was way off. But mark my words this kid will be good. I believe that he is seeing the ball much better than he has been in the past and that if he continues the trajectory he is on, he could be a key part of the Mariners infield for years.

Justin Smoak has proved his abilities in the field, but can he continue to prove himself at the plate?

Ben Van Houten/Mariners

Prediction 2: “Brandon Maurer will be the MVP of the pitching staff"
Yikes. Brandon Maurer had approximately one good start out of many before he was sent down to the minors. It took him a while to get back up where he was a reliever and spot starter. In his return to the big leagues, Maurer actually pitched decent and ate up some innings when they were needed. He wasn’t spectacular by any means but he showed some signs of life and I don’t think all hope should be lost for this kid. But once again we are a no-go for my predictions. 0-2 so far.

Prediction 3: “The Mariners will not be last in the division”

There we go! That’s right folks, I correctly predicted that the Mariners could beat out the Astros this season. Sometimes even I’m amazed at my foresight capabilities. This prediction wasn’t all that bold, but to be fair, it wasn’t close. The M’s beat the Astros by 20 games and were only 7 back of the Angels for third in the division. No matter how cheap, this point still goes to me. 1-2.

 

Prediction 4: “Franklin Gutierrez will miss nine or less games this year"

Oh boy. Gutierrez played in only 23 games this year. That is horrendous. This prediction wasn’t based on any facts, simply a gut feeling. No matter, still a brutal loss that I wasn’t even close on. 1-3.

 

Prediction 5: “Felix Hernandez will set a career high in wins with 20”

Nope. Felix finished 12-10 and missed a couple starts due to a back injury. He was pitching fantastic in the first half of the season, but simply wasn’t getting the wins due to a lack of offense. In the second half of the year, he slipped just a tick and then had some back issues which led to his performance slipping even more. Felix didn’t even lead the team in wins, but I put most of the blame on the team seemingly not wanting to hit whenever Felix pitched. 1-4.

 

Prediction 6: “The Mariners will win get 90 wins and contend for a wild card spot”

The irony is that they actually finished with 91 losses. Rough year after there was more optimism going into the season than I had heard in a while. I was dead wrong here, but I don’t think many people predicted them to be this bad. Oh well. Always next year. I promise there is reason to be optimistic about next year. Taijuan Walker and James Paxton looked fantastic in their limited action in the major leagues. If they can continue that success the Mariners will have Felix, Kuma, Walker, and Paxton as the first four in their rotation next year. Dirty.

 

One of the most effective pitchers towards the end of the year was James Paxton.

Ted S. Warren/The Associated Press

Well that’s that for my bold predictions. Finished one for six. Not very good. But hey, if that was my batting average I would have been better than the Mariners starting catcher for 35 games this season (Henry Blanco batted .125). I hope you had a good time laughing at my stupidity in thinking the Mariners had a chance to be good this year. Whether you did or didn’t, I hope you enjoy my team awards.

MVP: Hisashi Iwakuma
Kuma was dirty good this season, finishing third in the American League in ERA, second in WHIP, and a remarkable eighth even with the Mariners horrific offense. Iwakuma was absolutely fantastic this year and he should be a part of a great starting rotation next year.

Cy Young: Hisashi Iwakuma
See above.

*Honorable mention goes to my man Danny Farquhar. Lord Farquhar pitched great when he took over the closer role and had some absolutely dirty stuff. Can’t wait to see him in that role next year.

Offensive POY: Kendrys Morales
This award was perennially called the “Kyle Seager Award”, but this year Morales came in and stole the show. It’s hard not to give him this award as he led the team in batting average and RBI while being second in homeruns. He wasn’t the superstar this team truly needed, but he was a much needed boost, and I don’t know where the Mariners offense would have been without him this year.

The Mariners need to make resigning Kendrys Morales a priority this offseason.

Ted S. Warren/The Associated Press

Rookie of the Year: Brad Miller
Brad was fantastic to watch and he really brought energy to the Mariners. Of players who got any real playing time he was third in average, and if you pro-rated his numbers over the whole season he would have only been five RBI behind Morales for the team lead. While batting out of the leadoff spot. “Crazy Legs” is just an exciting player who puts up darn good numbers too.

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Mariners Early Season Awards

by Jackson Safon

Forty-five games into the Mariners season and they are 20-25. After playing really well for a stretch and even getting within one game of .500, they got swept by the Indians and have now moved back well below .500. We are just over a fourth of the way through the season, which means of course that it is time for some awards. Who doesn't like awards? Also because I need something to cheer me up considering the Mariners just got swept by the Indians and are, as I’m typing, losing to the 17-27 Angels. I am going to give the standard awards and some creative ones as well.

Offensive MVP: Kyle Seager

-No surprise here as Seager probably would have won this award last year as well, but this choice wasn't as obvious as it would seem. Kendrys Morales is nipping at his heels in virtually all categories. Of players who get regular playing time, Seager leads the team in batting average, hits, runs, and RBI, which would make it obvious that he would win the award. But as I said, Morales is not far behind, as he is only three hits, one homerun, and one RBI behind Seager. Whatever the case may be, Seager has followed up his stellar season last year with a strong start to the season so far and is the offensive MVP through 45 games.

Kyle Seager has proven to be the Mariner's best option on offense this year.

AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

-This was a VERY tough choice because Hisashi Iwakuma is having such a stellar season, and Tom Wilhelmsen has been virtually flawless as well, but as is the norm, Felix takes home the top pitching honors. One of the main reasons I gave him the nod over the other two guys is the fact that he might very well be the Cy Young of the American League, never mind the Seattle Mariners. He has been absolutely stellar this season, posting a 2.07 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and posting a great 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio. At this rate, Felix will not hit the 20 win mark I predicted for him before the season, but his pitching gives the team a great chance to win almost every time he goes out there and he gets my early season Cy Young.

Newcomer of the Year: Kendrys Morales

-A number of guys were up for this award and a number of guys could arguably have won it, but Kendrys is having the best overall season so far. He is second on the team in runs, RBI, and average among regular players. I just love the guy and think he has made a major impact in the middle of the lineup, even though the team’s offense hasn't been quite as good as everyone had anticipated. Honorable mention for this award goes to Michael Morse who leads the team in home runs, and Raul Ibanez, who isn't totally new to the team, but has been absolutely on fire recently and has 8 homers and 20 RBI in only 27 games.

(This is where it gets fun)

The David-Freese “Where has this been” Award: Justin Smoak

-This award is named so because of David Freese’s breakout performance for the Cardinals in the playoffs two years ago. He was always a good player, but one that people around the league thought could be so much better. He finally showed this and broke out in the playoffs that year. However, I hesitate to call this award the most improved award because it is specifically given to someone who we all expected to be good, but hasn't been up until this point. This is why this award is perfect for Justin Smoak. Everyone assumes he is having a terrible season because he has had a terrible career as a Mariner, but recently he has been playing terrific baseball. In fact, as Greg Johns of MLB.com notes, over the past 30 days Smoak is second among American League first basemen in on-base percentage (.422), fourth in batting average (.297), sixth in OPS (.922), and eighth in slugging percentage (.500). This is exactly the type of hitting we expected from Smoak when he came over from the Rangers, and if he can keep it up, he will be a force to be reckoned with. This improved hitting, plus his always stellar defense, makes him perfect for the David Freese (who also plays very good defense) award. The Smoakamotive has risen.

Justin Smoak has caught fire recently.

Steven Bisig - US PRESSWIRE

The Franklin Gutierrez “Needs to Stay Healthy” Award: Franklin Gutierrez*

-I’m just kidding. That wouldn't be fair to give the award to its namesake in the first year of its existence, but in all seriousness he does deserve it. To be fair to the rest of the team and to give it to the person that I really think means more to the team, this award goes to Michael Saunders. When Saunders is in the game the Mariners are just a different team, both on offense and defense. He obviously plays great defense, but his presence at the top of lineup absolutely makes a difference. Without him, there is so much less potency in the lineup and it just has a different feel with Endy Chavez leading off games. I really think Michael Saunders makes a huge difference to this team on both offense and defense, which is why he gets the Franklin Gutierrez Award.

The Omar Vizquel “Please God Let Me Hit the Ball Better” Award: Brendan Ryan

-This award really can only go to Ryan, because of the caveat that the award winner must play good defense, as Omar Vizquel did. Brendan Ryan is the modern day version of Omar Vizquel, who for those of you don’t know won nine gold gloves, but could never really hit the ball at a great level. I also happen to know Omar personally and used to be friends with his son, but I digress. The point is Brendan Ryan is the epitome of this award because his .178 batting average really doesn't cut it, but the fact that his defense is just so good almost makes up for it.

It’s time for my last early season award. I hope you guys have liked them.

The Hasheem Thabeet “Doesn’t Really Belong” Award: Jesus Montero

-Hasheem Thabeet is one of the more interesting players in the NBA in my opinion because he was drafted so highly at the second overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, was immediately sent to the D-League, but now has made it back up to the bigs. He has shown flashes of serious talent, but has never put it together for long enough to maintain relevance and every time I watch him play all I think is, “He really doesn't belong”. This is why the award goes to Jesus Montero. Occasionally, he will show what he’s got and blast a long home run, but his .208 average and lack of consistency really isn't cutting it. I personally think he should be sent down to triple-A where he can develop into a real player. I think he has shown enough potential to not quit on the project forever, but I don’t think he belongs in the MLB right now. 

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Seattle Mariner's 2013 Season: Bold Predictions

by Jackson Safon

In a season where expectations are as high as they have been in years for the Mariners, it is important to temper these hopes. Chances are this Mariners team will not win the AL West and chances are there will not be a player on this roster to lead the MLB in home runs. But this team does have potential, and these predictions will be bold, but they will not be impossible. Enjoy.

           

1. Justin Smoak will lead the team in RBI

Before you send an angry email complaining about how this will never happen and how Smoak has underperformed in every sense of the word, let me explain. Smoak has underperformed, but I think this really could be his breakout year. In spring training Smoak was tied for the team lead in RBI and was only four back of Morse for the team lead in homeruns. When I suggest Smoak as the team leader in RBI most people would counter with Morales or Morse, and don’t get me wrong, I am unbelievably excited for those guys as well, but I really think this is Smoak’s year. All of the attention of opposing pitchers will be centered on Morales and Morse and I think this will allow Smoak some great opportunities to drive in a lot of runs.

2. Brandon Maurer will be the MVP of the pitching staff

Calm down. Just calm down. I am not saying he will pitch better than Felix this season. Let me repeat, I am NOT saying he will pitch better than Felix. I am simply saying he will be a very valuable back end of the rotation guy. Think Pippen to Felix’s Michael Jordan. This Mariners team is one that has far less pitching depth which means that guys like Brandon Maurer and Blake Beaven will be increasingly important. Maurer is a monster at 6’5’’, 215 pounds and can really bring the heat. During the spring he had 25 strikeouts in 24 innings and had a 1.50 ERA, which is a great and encouraging number. I think Maurer will have a fantastic season and will be as good as any fourth starter in the league. This success at the back end of the rotation will reflect directly in the win column. Hence, value in MVP.

Brandon Maurer is another gem the Mariners have raised in their rich farm system.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

3. The Mariners will not be last in the division

This is sort of a trick statement and not really that bold either because the Astros are in the AL West now, but I had to put it in here because they have been in the cellar four of the last five seasons. I say this more because I think this team will be better, than because the Astros have joined the division. I really think this team has the power to contend in the division and if they are lucky, a playoff spot.

4. Franklin Gutierrez will miss nine or less games this year

Over the past two seasons Gutierrez has missed a total of 192 games. That’s a lot. But in his first two years in Seattle he only missed 19 games combined. I think Guti is rearing for a bounce-back year to prove to the Seattle fans that he can live up to his potential. He is obviously a gold glove caliber center fielder defensively, but I think with a full season he could potentially be a 20 homerun and 20 steal guy, which would be great production to add to Morales, Morse, and Smoak. If this prediction comes true, the Mariners lineup could prove to be a deadly offense.

5. Felix Hernandez will set a career high in wins with 20

Felix has never hit this benchmark in his pro career with his highest being 19 in 2009, but besides that season he has never had more than 14. He has had unbelievable success so far in Seattle in all statistical categories except wins, which generally means his team has not been good enough and he has not received enough run support. I think this is the year that could really change because of the additions of Morales and Morse, along with the improvement of guys like Smoak and the health of Gutierrez. If Felix can get some run support, there is no doubt in my mind he could hit the magic number 20 and potentially win his second Cy Young award.

Felix Hernandez will be pitching with comfort this season after signing a massive contract extension in the offseason. 

butattheendoftheday.com

6. The Mariners will win get 90 wins and contend for a wild card spot

I told you they would be bold. I do think this could actually happen. If the back end of the rotation guys can pitch well and the bullpen lead by Wilhelmsen can stay strong, this team finally has the hitting to make some noise in the American League. The division they are in is obviously a tough one, but I think this team has a lot of potential and could make some noise. Last year it took 93 wins to get one of the two wild card spots, but the year before it would have only taken 91 to be the second wild card team. If everything goes right for this team, I really think that this is a possibility. 

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Mariners Land Morales in Exchange for Vargas

On Wednesday, the Mariners completed a trade that filled (to a certain extent) an area of need. The Mariners traded Jason Vargas to the Angels in exchange for Kendrys Morales, a 1B/DH type player. Despite the fact that Justin Smoak holds down first base currently for the Mariners and the fact that there is a log-jam at the designated hitter position, Jack Zduriencik made the trade nonetheless. However, even with a plethora of players at these positions, I think it was a great trade as the Mariners lost value in a position they have talent in and gained value in a position where they didn't have much value in. Here are some other reasons why I believe this trade was exceptional.

Jason Vargas looks to do the same thing in LA as he did in Seattle: eat up innings.

Otto Greule Jr/AP

First of all, lets start with the piece the Mariners lost in this trade. Jason Vargas has been a very good pitcher for the Mariners over the past couple of years and has eaten up a ton of innings. He is mainly a fly-ball pitcher and Safeco Field suited him very well. I think that the pitchers park down in Anaheim will do the exact same for Vargas and he will have some success with the Angels. However, I think the LA heat could be a factor and in the end it could lead to the demise of Jason Vargas next year. The Angels needed an inning eater and they got exactly what they wanted in Vargas. The Mariners, as everybody knows, have a surplus of pitching talent in the minor leagues so the idea of trading Vargas sounded much better because of this surplus. Vargas' contract this year calls for four million more dollars then Morales' does, another reason why I like this trade. It frees up even more money for the Mariners to spend on other player's contracts. Trading within the division is risky at times, but both general managers were fine with it as both players just have a year remaining on their respective contracts. Also, the Mariners don't really pose a threat to the Angels this year, making the trade even easier for Jerry DiPoto, the GM of the Angels. Now lets get to why this trade was attractive from the Mariner's point of view.

Kendrys Morales looks to provide the Mariners with something they haven't had a lot of lately, that thing they call offense.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA TODAY Sports

Kendrys Morales is well known for his injury he sustained while celebrating after hitting a walk-off grand slam against the Mariners in 2010. Morales was headed for a big season in 2010 as he was projected to hit for over 110 RBI and 30 HR with an average close to .300. However, this injury (a broken his leg) suddenly ended his season. Morales missed all of the 2011 season, but was working hard in rehab. He came back last year in the 2012 season and had a .273 average while hitting for 22 HR and 73 RBI. Morales' best months in the season were in August and September so I'm sure Zduriencik was pleased to see this. With this move, the Mariners add a hitter that has huge potential and can fit in nicely right in the middle of the lineup. Morales said he feels 100% now and the best he has felt since his injury. However, with this acquisition, the Mariners now have a log-jam at the 1B and DH positions. With Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero/John Jaso, and Morales all in the mix for two positions, there will be some sorting out to do in spring training, but that's what spring training is for. Montero and Jaso will most likely switch off at catcher until Zunino gets called up to the big leagues while it is now clear that it is do or die time for Justin Smoak. Morales will put pressure on Smoak to perform and a little positional competition doesn't hurt anybody. Only the best will come out of this competition. It is still to be seen what the Mariners will do with Morales this season. They could try and sign him to an extension, trade him during the season, or could let him go as a free agent. It will largely have to do with the performance that Morales puts up this season. Scott Boras is his agent so it would be very hard to sign Morales to an extension during the season.

In the end, I think this trade was very good for both teams, but I think the Mariners will eventually get the better side of the deal. Morales has shown his skills before and has proven to be a solid hitter. The Mariners desperately need offense and Morales provides the team with some power hitting. Pitching is an area of strength so Vargas was relatively easily to let go of. This move does not by any means restrict the Mariners from making other moves for power bats. It actually makes the Mariners look more intriguing to free agent hitters as Morales adds some strength and protection to the lineup. Some areas of need that Jack Zduriencik still needs to fill are a power bat, a veteran pitcher, and possibly a lead-off hitter. Mihael Bourn looks intriguing for the Mariners and Joe Saunders could be a lefty answer to the need for a veteran pitcher. Nick Swisher is a very nice option for the Mariners who could fit in nicely with Morales in the lineup, but the Mariners haven't been rumored to be looking at him in-depth. Look for Zduriencik to make some more moves in the coming weeks, via either trade or free agency. No matter what, I think the Mariners will make the necessary moves in order to obtain a winning record in the upcoming season. Jack Zduriencik only wants the best for the Mariners organization and trust me, he can hear the fans crying for a competitive team. This drives him everyday to improve the Seattle Mariners.

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Marshall