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Final Takeaways: Seahawks Win the Super Bowl

By: Jackson Safon

Your Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl champions. Say it again. And again. And again. And again. You can say it over and over again for at least 363 more days and it will be the truth the entire time. I have had the good fortune of being a Boston sports fan my entire life, so this is not my first championship, however; it is the first time my hometown city has won a championship. Let me tell you, it is very very different. The togetherness of this city is remarkable. The fact that there is even a conversation being had about cancelling school for the victory parade on Wednesday is proof that this city is crazy about its Seahawks. The pure elation that this entire city felt yesterday, from 3:40 PM onward is absolutely incredible. Even when the excitement starts to wear off, you will always know that 2014 will be a great year because every single day in it, the Seattle Seahawks will still be world champions.

1. Boom

That is the title of the newest edition of Sports Illustrated and I think it sums it up pretty well. The Seahawks dominated the Broncos from the opening kickoff. You don’t have to win all three phases of a football game in order to win the game as a whole, but the Seahawks didn’t want to hear that. Not only did they win every phase of the game, they dominated it. If the ‘Hawks only had the point from the opening 12 seconds of each half, they would’ve won the game by one. If all of the points from their offense are taken away, they still win the game by seven. They had more touchdowns than the Broncos had yards per play. They had more explosive plays. They had less turnovers. They did everything right, and it was mesmerizing. Ridiculous of amounts of respect to Peyton Manning, who is the greatest regular season quarterback of all time, and probably one of the top five qb’s ever. But the Seattle Seahawks dominated him yesterday, just as they dominated every single part of that game. Soak it all in Seahawks fans, because your team just beat the best offense in NFL history 43-8.

The defense as a whole played its best game of the season.

ABC News 

2. MVP

In the 2002 Super Bowl, the New England Patriots did something unprecedented, they were introduced as a team. No individual names were read, and they came out together. Obviously they went on to beat the “Greatest Show on Turf” after being double-digit underdogs. The point is, I believe that no single player should’ve won the Super Bowl MVP yesterday, but that it should’ve been given to the team. At the very least, to the entire defense. That is no insult to Malcolm Smith, because he played an outstanding game. But there is no way you can say he was any more deserving of the MVP than Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Russell Wilson, Percy Harvin, or any other member of the Seahawks. They played as a team the entire season and they won as a team.

3. Pedestrians

Pedestrian (adj.) – lacking in vitality or distinction, commonplace. This has been the word often used to describe the Seahawks receiving corps, most notably by ESPN analyst Cris Carter. A word I would use to describe their play yesterday would be a lot closer to fantastic. Percy Harvin was electric. Doug Baldwin came up big every time we needed him to. Jermaine Kearse was playing pinball out there, with the defenders bouncing off him. I no longer have any fears about this group of receivers going forward and while I think it is likely and probably wise that the ‘Hawks draft a receiver this year, I now think it should be prioritized well below offensive line, which was not the case beforehand.

Jermaine Kearse had a monster day and represented UW well.

Seattle Times

4. Dynasty?

The NFL imposed a hard salary cap in order to prevent dynasties from happening. Without the ability to pay all of a team’s best players the money they want, many teams will be forced to let players go, which naturally prevents that team from winning another championship. This team however, is one that has the potential to buck that idea. It is not a guarantee it will happen. It’s probably not even likely. But it’s possible. They have the best young talent in the NFL, with only two of their stars having contracts up after next year, and they have the best General Manager in football. With John Schneider’s ability to draft well and Pete Carroll’s ability to develop talent, the Seahawks could conceivably let a few guys walk and still succeed. Furthermore, because they have the ability to acquire talent for very cheap, it is conceivable that they keep Russell Wilson and the entire Legion of Boom. If you don’t believe me, go ask @DavisHsuSeattle on Twitter. He is a salary cap genius and will prove you wrong. Point being, the ‘Hawks are here to stay so let’s enjoy the ride.

This being the last game of the season, it is naturally my last “Takeaways” post. I hope I could help educate you on the game while being the least bit entertaining as well. I highly encourage you to keep following the Seattle Sports Soup team even if you are only here for the Seahawks. We are adding writers and will have high quality content for every level of fan for every Seattle sport. Thanks for a great season 12’s. 

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The Seahawks Are Super Bowl Champions

By Marshall Cherrington

No words can describe what this means to the city of Seattle, the first professional sports championship in 30 years. The Seahawks absolutely destroyed the Broncos in a matchup of the number one defense and number one offense on Sunday night. Did anybody think it would be that big of a blowout? No way. And that's what makes it so awesome. The Seahawks, again, did something nobody though they could do. Many people around America didn't even think they would win the game. Want proof of that? Just look at this ESPN poll:

I don't have much else to say right now other than we finally did it. The Seahawks are Super Bowl Champions. Let that sink in right now. But just know that there are more on the way.

Takeaways will be up tomorrow most likely and there should be a Wednesday Wanderings this week. Until then 'Hawks fans...

Seahawks vs. Broncos: Prediction Time

The Super Bowl is finally upon us. We've prepared you guys all week leading up to the game with in-depth analysis, positional breakdowns and key matchups to watch for. Each writer here at Seattle Sports Soup has paid close attention to the media surrounding the big game and has watched all the big time outlets predict the game. Now it's our turn. Here are out Super Bowl 48 predictions.

Marshawn Lynch could be the difference in the game.

Sports Illustrated

Marshall Cherrington, Editor-In-Chief
The Seattle Seahawks are in the freakin’ Super Bowl. Now even though there is no way I am going to pick against them, if I was a neutral observer, I would still pick the Seahawks. Jackson did a great job with his series of statistical analysis articles and you should go read them all. It’ll give you more insight into what this matchup really looks like on paper. Anyways, I think the Seahawks overall have a more skilled roster than the Broncos. This is one of the main reasons why I think the Seahawks are going to win. With the cold weather, there could be some injuries and that does not bode well for the Broncos. If one of their starters goes down, it might not be good news for Peyton Manning's team. The Broncos are already playing with multiple backups starting and digging further into the depth chart probably doesn't sound to appeasing to Broncos fans. Another reason I think the Seahawks are going to win is because they matchup so well against the Broncos. The best position group on the Broncos, besides QB, is the wide receiver core. The best position group on the Seahawks? The secondary. Great matchup right there. Jackson broke down the matchup, position group by position group yesterday in his Super Bowl preview and somehow the Broncos came out on top, winning 6 position groups to 5 position groups. I think that is horrible analysis by Jackson, but he’s provided enough good analysis that he gets a free pass this time. In every position group that the Broncos are better than the Seahawks in, the Seahawks aren’t far behind when it comes to talking about skill level. In every position group that the Seahawks are better than the Broncos in, the Broncos are clearly behind. I think this gap in talent will play a big part in the game, but there’s one position group where the Broncos have a huge advantage. Can anyone guess? Yeah, that would be the quarterback position. I think the game will come down to Russell Wilson leading the team down the field to kick a field goal to win it. What a story that would be. Not the defense for once. Should be a fun one to watch. 
Seattle 30, Denver 27

Jackson Safon, Senior Writer 
Prediction time! I am going to put my official score prediction as 27-23, a slight change from my prediction before of 27-24. The Seahawks are going to win for a couple of reasons. First, they are the only team in the entire NFL, possibly in NFL history that can match up with all of the Broncos weapons. The Legion of Boom is physical, talented, and disciplined, the three most important characteristics when playing the type of defense that the Seahawks do. Additionally, the ‘Hawks are very balanced on offense, which will allow them to control the clock. As the Chargers showed, to beat the Broncos, the most important thing to do is keep Peyton Manning off the field. The Chargers time of possession was almost 39 minutes. While I do not think the Seahawks necessarily have to go that far, controlling the clock and controlling field position with their balanced offense will be a key to their success. With all the talk about statistics in this game, myself included, I believe the game could boil down to three stats: Turnovers, red-zone efficiency, and explosive plays. Explosive plays have become an official stat in the NFL, and they consist of runs over 12 yards and passes over 20 yards. I believe the Seahawks will have to win two of those three stats, and possibly all three in order to win the game. The Seahawks had the best turnover differential in the league and the best red-zone defense. But the Broncos have the best red-zone offense, and a quarterback that has only thrown 11 interceptions in almost 800 attempts, if you include the playoffs. It will no doubt be a fantastic game, but I believe Russell Wilson will make just enough plays and the defense will force a turnover or two which will lead the Seahawks to a victory. 
Seattle 27, Denver 23

Kevin Calderhead, Staff Writer

If the Hawks are going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, it’ll be because of their defense. Seattle cannot afford to get into a shootout with Peyton Manning’s number one offense. Thankfully, the Seahawks’ number one defense has the ability to combat the Denver powerhouse.

It would be fair to say that the Seattle defense has more depth than the Grand Canyon. I’ll start with the defensive line: Avril, Bennett, Irvin, Mebane, McDaniel, Bryant, McDonald. This defensive line needs to get to Manning, and quick, because Manning gets the ball out faster than any other quarterback in the NFL. It won’t be easy; Denver also had the best pass protection in the league this season. But because of the depth, the D-line can stay fresh the whole game and give us a pretty good shot at pressuring Peyton.

I also like the matchups we have in the secondary; Denver’s Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Eric Decker up against Seattle’s Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas and Byron Maxwell. Throw in Thurmond and Lane and you have a shutdown secondary.  It is guaranteed that there will be some Legion of Boom highlights on Sunday. Don’t forget that our linebackers have done a pretty good job of stifling opposing tight ends this year as well. If Manning gets pressured and all his receivers are covered, hopefully the Hawks’ D can force some turnovers.

Moving on to the offensive side of the ball. Russell Wilson has to have an effective game through the air in order to depart a victor. He has to establish the pass to open up the running game for Beast Mode, Robert Turbin, and not to mention himself. Russell has to play smart and not force throws to well covered receivers, which he is perfectly capable of doing.

Oh yeah, that’s right. PERCY HARVIN. Having Percy back gives the Hawks an automatic special teams advantage on kickoffs, and he’s a huge addition to Golden Tate and Jermaine Kearse at receiver. And a note to Russell on what I mentioned in the last paragraph: Go ahead and throw to Harvin when he’s covered. He’ll probably catch it anyways.

           

The Hawks have all the tools to win this game, it’s only a matter of whether they execute or not. I say they do. 
Seattle 31, Denver 27

Lukie Crowley, Staff Writer 

First of all, I would like to introduce myself. My name is Lukie Crowley and I am a senior in high school at Overlake NOT Redmond but I still support the Mustangs being from Redmond. I will be writing here every so often and am excited to be welcomed in by Marshall and Jackson beyond our Twitter conversations. Now let’s get to the business and Go Hawks.

There has been talk all week and throughout the season about the Broncos having the best offense in the NFL and the Seahawks having the best defense. A classic matchup in which it seems surreal, as firstly it is rare to see the two #1 seeds advance to the Super Bowl but secondly the #1 offense and defense colliding with each other is a dream come true for all fans. In my opinion, defense always overpowers offense and history tends to agree with me. Chase Stuart from Football-Perspective.com provides some excellent research on this subject (h/t to Steve Rudman from Sportspressnw.com):

There have been 10 Super Bowls with the #1 offense and defense facing each other or the ones with greatest difference in scored vs. allowed). Eight have been won by the defense.

Year	Offense (Average PPG)	Defense (Average PPG Allowed)	Result/Winner
1966 (First SB)	Chiefs (32.0)	Packers (11.6)	GB/Defense
1967	Raiders (33.4)	Packers (14.9)	GB/Defense
1968	Jets (29.9)	Colts (13.4)	NYJ/Offense
1969	Vikings (27.1)	Chiefs (12.6)	KC/Defense
1971	Cowboys (29.0)	Dolphins (12.4)	Dal/Offense
1984	Dolphins (32.1)	49ers (14.2 blegh)	SF/Defense
1991	Bills (28.6)	Redskins (14.0)	Wash/Defense
2001	Rams (31.4)	Patriots (17.0)	NE/Defense
2002	Raiders (28.1)	Buccaneers (12.3)	TB/Defense
2007	Patriots (36.8)	Giants (21.9)	NYG/Defense

Now the Broncos averaged 37.9 PPG throughout the season (!!!) higher than any of the Super Bowls that were noted here and the Seahawks allowed 14.4 PPG. After looking how the matchups have gone in past SB’s I believe the Seahawks will win based on the stout defense. Everyone (including Colin Kaepernick) http://t.co/rzxyLgxFoO seems to the nickel corner is a weak point in the defense but I think Walter Thurmond will step under the pressure. I think he will have an INT and make a big play with Zach Miller (Who Jackson seems to hate) having 2 TD receptions. But all in all Russell Wilson will have the biggest game in the biggest game of his life, and will be named Super Bowl MVP. After careful consideration, my prediction: Go Hawks! 

Seattle 27, Denver 17  

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Super Bowl Preview: Seahawks vs. Broncos

By Jackson Safon

The big game is nearly upon us. Less than 48 hours away. It is Blue Friday and this city is gearing up for its biggest game since February 5, 2006. So naturally I, along with everyone else, will continue to analyze and analyze until it is finally time to snap the ball and watch the game play out. Because I am sure you have read plenty of Super Bowl coverage, I will start out with one of the most under-covered, yet most important details of the big game. The jerseys. Because it is the AFC’s year to be “home”, the Broncos got first choice at the jersey they want to wear, and they chose their home orange. Not only is this a perfect chance to try and popularize the nickname “Orange Julius” for Julius Thomas, it allows the Seahawks to create the best possible uniform combination they have: White tops and blue bottoms. They are my absolute favorite jersey combo the ‘Hawks have and I was giddy when I found out it was what they are wearing. Yes, giddy about a jersey choice.

The game itself is shaping up to be an outstanding one. Even if you have not read my statistical analysis from earlier this week, or any other Super Bowl coverage for that matter, you probably know that the matchups between the two teams are perfect. Best offense vs. best defense. Best quarterback vs. best secondary. Both teams match up great for one another, which means it is going to be an awesome game. Something has to give however and it will be fascinating to see which side slips up first. Both teams will most likely have to make plays with the part of their offense that is the weaker link, rushing for the Broncos and passing for the Seahawks. In any case, a positional group comparison is another way to analyze the two teams and try and predict the unpredictable.

Quarterbacks:

Russell Wilson vs. Peyton Manning

Russell Wilson is an outstanding second year quarterback who has been breaking records left and right for young quarterbacks. He could end up being the best player in Seahawks history and potentially even in Seattle history. But Peyton Manning had the best season of any quarterback in NFL history. Even if he isn’t the best of all time, he is the best of right now, and no doubt takes the cake against Wilson. Seahawks: 0 Broncos: 1

Marshawn Lynch in the open field is scary.
AP Photo

Running Backs:

Marshawn Lynch/Robert Turbin vs. Knowshon Moreno/Montee Ball

Moreno had almost 1,600 all-purpose yards this season and 13 touchdowns to boot. Marshawn Lynch had almost the exact same amount of yards and only one more touchdown. Numbers never lie they say? Well they do in this case, because Marshawn Lynch is a better running back than Knowshon Moreno and everyone knows it. Montee Ball had a relatively strong rookie campaign and has showed flashes of greatness, but this category absolutely goes to BeastMode and the ‘Hawks. Seahawks: 1 Broncos: 1

Wide Receivers:

Percy Harvin/Golden Tate/Doug Baldwin vs. Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker/Wes Welker

Percy Harvin will play and he will start and he will not miss a snap and he will win the Super Bowl MVP and he will save the world. Not quite, but he has been practicing at full-speed all week and expects to play a full complement of snaps. Here’s to every Seahawk fan out there who will be holding their breath the first time he touches the ball, not because of nervousness, but because of the fear that their breathing itself could actually cause Percy Harvin to get hurt. He is one of the most electric players in the NFL when healthy so let’s just hope he can stay that way. Golden Tate is the leading NFL receiver in forced missed tackles, and Doug Baldwin is turning into an absolute baller. The Broncos’ receiving corps however is probably the best in the league. Is Eric Decker a bit overrated? Probably. Are their numbers inflated by Manning’s ridiculousness? Obviously. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that they are all very talented. Demaryius Thomas is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL, Eric Decker is a very strong all-around receiver, and Wes Welker could be the best slot receiver of all-time. Broncos. Seahawks: 1 Broncos: 2

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas and Peyton Manning could prove to be a lethal combo.
Fancloud

Zach Miller/Luke Willson vs. Orange Julius/Jacob Tamme

Zach Miller was a star in Oakland, but has become one of, if not the most overpaid player on the Seahawks roster. When he’s running with the ball it almost seems as if he’s wearing lead ankle-weights. Luke Willson on the other hand is one of my favorite young Seahawks. He is a really quick player with good hands. Orange Julius Thomas is one of the new breed of former basketball players turned NFL tight ends. He is 6 foot 5 inches, 250 pounds and runs a 4.6 40-yard dash. He is electric, and has become one of the tougher to defend young tight ends in the game. Seahawks: 1 Broncos: 3

Offensive Line:

The Seahawks offensive line is rated as the worst pass-blocking line in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, while the Broncos are the best in that category. Additionally, FO rates the Broncos run-blocking line as better than the ‘Hawks as well. They have worked well together the entire season and are just a better unit than that Seahawks have right now. Seahawks: 1 Broncos: 4

Defensive Line:

The interior part of the Broncos defensive line is one of the better in the league, as Sylvester Williams and Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton are a pair of monster run stoppers. Shaun Phillips on the outside is a veteran who is still performing at a pretty high level as well. The Seahawks however have the best defensive line in all of football as I have detailed before. They have pass-rushers in Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril. Run stoppers in Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane. Plus they have guys that can do both in Michael Bennett and Clinton McDonald. Unbelievably talented and deep group. Seahawks: 2 Broncos: 4

Linebackers:

The Seahawks have an unbelievable set of four linebackers right now in Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Malcolm Smith, and K.J. Wright. With Wright fully healthy, I’m not sure how Pete Carroll and the coaching staff will decide who to start between Smith and Wright. Bobby Wagner is playing at a pro-bowl level, Malcolm Smith is playing out of his mind, Bruce Irvin is still a deadly pass-rusher, and K.J. Wright could be the most complete linebacker on the team. The Broncos have some good backers as well in Wesley Woodyard and Danny Trevathan, but they simply don’t stack up with the ‘Hawks unit at all. Seahawks: 3 Broncos: 4

K.J. Wright should be back up to 100% as he has had two full weeks to rest his foot.
USA Today Sports

Secondary:

The Seahawks’ best single positional group, and probably the Broncos’ worst. Go Hawks. Seahawks: 4 Broncos: 4

Special Teams:

This is actually a very close matchup and one that could prove key in the Super Bowl. Both teams are obviously outstanding, so every single edge will be important, whether it be field position, clutch kicking, or the return game. Steven Hauschka and Matt Prater are two of the best kickers in the NFL, but because of Prater’s better range, I will give him the nod. Jon Ryan and Britton Colquitt are a pair of outstanding punters, but Ryan has been slightly better in most statistical categories. The return game could play a huge part as well, as the Broncos allow the most kick return yards in the NFL. Welcome back Mr. Harvin. Trindon Holliday, the returner for the Broncos is no slouch however, he has broken big returns in big moments throughout his young career. On paper this category is a wash, but whoever wins this part of the game could serve to have a huge advantage. Seahawks: 5 Broncos: 5

Coaching:

Both Pete Carroll and Jon Fox coached together as assistants on the Iowa State football team, and both have become very successful head coaches in their own right. Darrell Bevell and Adam Gase are the offensive coordinators, and Bevell it seems has reigned in Russell Wilson’s play, which has been frustrating to see. Because of this, and because of Gase’s willingness to let their offense loose, I think the Broncos get a slight nod in this category. Seahawks: 5 Broncos: 6

The Broncos have a slight edge in positional groupings, but I think this is as close of a matchup as you can get. Both teams have some of the all-time best units in the Broncos offense and Seahawks defense. Russell Wilson will have to make some plays, whether it be with his legs or his arm, in order for the Seahawks to win this game. Winning the turnover battle will be key, winning the explosive play battle will be key, and taking advantage of opportunities will be key. I am nervous and excited. Less than 48 hours. Cautiously predicting a Seahawks win 27-24.

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Seahawks vs. Broncos: A Statistical Analysis Part 3

By: Jackson Safon

Welcome to the third and final part of my statistical analysis of the Super Bowl! If the last 2,000 or so words has gotten you down about the Seahawks’ chances in Super Bowl XLVIII, the next 1,000 will get your hopes up as defense is where we make our money.

Broncos Defense

The Broncos defense is in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed and points allowed, but the question often raised is, are these yards and points only allowed because their opponents are always playing catch-up? This does in fact seem to be true, as the Broncos are in the top half of the league (although just barely) in defensive DVOA. Furthermore, in weighted DVOA, which as a reminder, reflects how teams are playing at the end of the season, they are in the top 10. Some would argue that the Broncos played against a somewhat easy defensive schedule, but over half of their games were against teams in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. In these games however, the Broncos played rather poorly, allowing 27 points per game. One of the issues for the Seahawks will be that the Broncos are a top ten defensive unit in terms of stopping the run in both yards allowed and DVOA. This could be problematic, as if the Broncos can stop the run with only seven in the box, the Seahawks will struggle mightily on offense. The Broncos are 21^st against the pass however in DVOA, so that is an area Russell Wilson and the passing attack will simply have to exploit in order to have a chance in the big game.

Terrance Knighton has been a beast on the inside for the Broncos defense

Getty Images 

Seahawks Defense

Here it is. A long time coming. I mentioned earlier that the Broncos have the sixth best offensive DVOA since the creation of this system in 1989, but the Seahawks have the seventh best defensive DVOA in the same time period. Additionally, while the Broncos offense has regressed to the mean somewhat over the second half of the season, the Seahawks defense has actually gotten better as the season has progressed. Their defensive DVOA for the whole season was -25.8% (remember, since positive numbers represent more scoring, defensive DVOA is better when it is negative), but their weighted DVOA was -30.0%. While the gap between the rest of the league and the Broncos offense dropped to less than one percent after DVOA was weighted, the Seahawks defense actually increased their gap on the rest of the league in terms of defensive dominance. Not surprisingly, the ‘Hawks had the best ranked pass defensive DVOA, as well as lead the league in pass yards allowed, total yards allowed, and interceptions. They were the best defense in the NFL this season. Period. End of conversation. Not only were they dominant, they seemed to get up for the bigger games. The Seahawks allowed 14.4 points per game over the course of the season, but in their nine games against top 20 offenses, they only allowed 13.67 per game. And in their four games against top 10 offenses, the allowed a mere 8.5 points per game. That is barely over one score. For an entire game. Against top 10 offenses.

 Look for Michael Bennett to have a big impact on disrupting Manning's rhythm.

SportsKings 

So now that most of the stats have been hashed out, it is time to do some true comparison and to determine who has the pure, statistical advantage. The Broncos offensive DVOA when weighted is 27.1% and the Seahawks defensive DVOA when weighted is -30.0%. This gives the Seahawks an advantage of 2.9% so far. The best part about the Broncos offense vs. the Seahawks defense is that it is strength on strength. The Broncos had the best passing season in the history of the NFL, and the Seahawks pass defense is one of the best in the history of the NFL. The Seahawks weighted, offensive DVOA is 8.7%, and the Broncos weighted, defensive DVOA is    -5.6%, which gives the ‘Hawks another advantage, this time of 3.1%. Those are definitely good gaps, but what I think brings the two teams a bit closer together is the fact that it is strength on strength on both sides of the ball. In addition to the Broncos offense and Seahawks defense being the Yin and Yang of each other, the Broncos defense and ‘Hawks offense are the same. The Broncos have a top 10 run stopping unit, and the Seahawks’ have one of the better running games in football. Because of this, the game could be determined by which team more successfully goes away from their strength, whether that be the Broncos running game or the Seahawks’ passing game.

My final note is not a statistical one but a matchup one: weather. Adverse weather can come in different forms, whether it be rain, wind, cold, snow, or whatever else. I think rain and cold are two elements that are sort of a wash, and don’t give an advantage to either team. Wind and snow however are much more powerful elements and could change the game completely. I believe snow would give the advantage to the Broncos, because their strength is offense, and snow generally helps offenses. The reason being it is much harder to cut in snow, and since offensive players know where they are going, it can be hard for defensive backs to keep up in the snow. Wind on the other hand would be a massive advantage for the Seahawks. While the Broncos have shown the ability to run the ball, their strength is obviously in the passing game, and that is a place where wind can do a ton of damage. Just look at the Sunday Night Football game in November where the Broncos lost to the Patriots. The wind was swirling the entire night (trust me, I was there), and it was such a big factor that in overtime, Bill Belichick chose to take the wind instead of the ball after winning the coin toss. In that game, Peyton Manning had his worst game of the year by far, throwing for only 150 yards on 36 attempts. He played terrible and his receivers were having a tough time locating the ball in the wind as well. To reiterate: snow is bad and wind is good.

           

Just remember, in any game, and especially a game as big of the Super Bowl, fluky plays can happen. We have seen it before in the Super Bowl with plays such as the David Tyree catch-on-the-helmet and the crazy holding in the end zone for a safety against the Patriots in 2012. Whether it be crazy penalties, or tipped balls, or fumbles at the goal line, anything can happen and when one of these plays does happen, you can pretty much through all these stats out the window. Because of that, I believe the most important statistic in this game will be turnovers. Winning the turnover battle will be key, but also making sure to win the turnover battle when the Seahawks are in their own and their opponents 20-yard line. It is going to be an amazing game.  

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Seahawks vs. Broncos: A Statistical Analysis Part 2

By Jackson Safon

Time for part two. We left off having done some analysis on both the Broncos’ and Seahawks’ offenses, with the conclusion being that the Broncos are much, much better on that side of the ball. Obvious, right? Yes, but there is a lot more to it, and I highly advise you to go read part one before continuing on here. I will wait.

Did you do it? Good. Next on the docket is looking at the games the two Super Bowl teams had in common this season, as those would naturally be good games to compare performance in.

The Seahawks and Broncos actually played five of the same opponents this season, Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and the New York Giants. Interestingly, they played the same teams at home and on the road. Even more interesting, in the five common games, both teams went 4-1, with their lone loss being on the road at the Colts. Because the Seahawks and Broncos had the home and away games against the same teams and they had the same record in these five games, comparing the performances is very interesting.

First up is the games against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It was a week three game for the Seahawks and a week six game for the Broncos, both teams played at home. In each of these games, the home teams dominated, with the Seahawks winning 45-17, and the Broncos winning 35-19. While these scores are pretty similar, after looking deeper it is clear the Seahawks played better in their game against the Jaguars. The Seahawks completely dominated their game, and even brought in their reserves in the third quarter. The Broncos however were only up by two at the half, and didn’t have the game in hand until much later. In their games against the Jaguars, Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning had the same completion percentage and amount of interceptions, but Wilson actually threw two more touchdowns. Neither team was able to get the running game going very well, but the Seahawks ended up averaging 7.1 yards per play to a measly 5.7 for the Broncos. In the first of their common games, the Seahawks outplayed the Broncos in all facets.

Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson had very similar games against Jacksonville. The only difference? Wilson threw for two more touchdowns. 

Herald.net

Another of their common games was against the Houston Texans, and this is an interesting one to examine because of the Texans’ third ranked pass defense, by DVOA. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passing game really struggled, to the tune of 123 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. Manning on the other hand, shredded the Texans’ strong pass defense for 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Seahawks were only three of fourteen on third down and averaged 4.7 yards per play, well below their season average. The Broncos defense played better as well, holding the Texans to 13 points, while the Seahawks let up 20 in one of their worst defensive performance of the season.

Both teams lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Indy this season, so I figured this would be one of the most interesting games to examine. Manning was virtually flawless as he was all season, throwing for 386 yards, three touchdowns and only one interception, but the rest of the offense wasn’t as successful. Knowshon Moreno only rushed for 40 yards and averaged less than three yards per carry. Additionally, the Broncos were five of sixteen on third down which was well below their season average. The Seahawks offense was even worse on third down, converting only two of their twelve attempts. It seems the main cause for the loss of both teams was the defense, or lack thereof, as the Colts scored 34 against the ‘Hawks and 39 against the Broncos.

These two teams played two more common games against the Titans and Giants, but the narrative was pretty much the same. Over the five games, the Seahawks averaged 27.8 points compared to the Broncos ridiculous 39.4. The Seahawks defense however significantly outplayed the Broncos’ unit, allowing only 16.8 points per game compared to the Broncos defense that allowed 24.4. The biggest disparity however is one Seahawks fans have harped on all year, third down efficiency. The ‘Hawks converted only 27% of their third downs in the five common games, while the Broncos converted 40%. Both of these are below the season averages, but the ‘Hawks will need to boost that number if they want to win the Super Bowl.

           

Another of the more interesting points of comparison between the two teams is the place where most football pundits say games are won and lost: the trenches. Offensive and defensive lines are the start to every single play in football, and the team that owns the line of scrimmage has a great chance of coming out with a Super Bowl victory.

Denver’s pass protection was the best in the league, allowing a league low 20 sacks, and boasting a league best adjusted sack rate (DVOA), of 3.7%. The Broncos were first but where were the Seahawks? Dead last. They were middle of the pack in terms of sacks allowed, but that is mostly because of the man under center, Harry Houdini himself. The Seahawks were last in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. First and last. Not a good sign for Seattle. That may trouble some fans, but others could say “But what about run blocking? We can make up for it there.”. Wrong. The Broncos actually had a better run blocking offensive line by DVOA. It wasn’t a lot better, but it was better.

Defensive line play is the flip side to this, and if either team can dominate on the defensive line, they can totally disrupt an offense. This was shown to Seahawk fans firsthand this season, as Robert Quinn, Chris Long, and the Rams defensive line were in the Seahawks backfield seemingly every play in both games they played, resulting in the Seahawks barely averaging over 20 points in those two games. More bad news however Seahawk fans, as the Broncos have the third best defensive line in terms of run stopping in the NFL. They were ninth in rushing yards allowed, but after DVOA adjusts for schedule and everything else, the Broncos defensive line ranks third. Not good news for the Seahawks’ 13^th ranked run blocking offensive line. There is a light at the end of the tunnel however, as the Seahawks crush the Broncos in pass-rushing defensive line. The Broncos are in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of adjusted sack rate, which is the statistic of choice to rank defensive lines. Although the Seahawks only had three more sacks than the Broncos, they were seventh in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. This will be a HUGE storyline to watch, as being able to get pressure against Peyton Manning without blitzing is one of the few ways to disrupt his timing.

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Seahawks vs. Broncos: A Statistical Analysis Part 1

By Jackson Safon

There are thousands of different storylines for Super Bowl XLVIII, but one of the things that often gets neglected is the simple comparison of the two teams. Marshall already illustrated how the Seahawks’ defense matches up against Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense, but I am going to use statistics to truly compare the two teams and show how they stack up with one another. Along with standard statistics such as passing yards, completion percentage, and others, I am also going to be using a statistic called DVOA, which stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Because there is so much to go into, this is part one of a three part statistical analysis.

Peyton Manning will lead his 1st ranked Broncos offense on to the field Sunday against the Seahawks.

Business Insider

DVOA was created by Football Outsiders and it essentially takes every single play of the NFL season and compares it to a league-average based on situation. In essence it is the ideal stat because it takes into account opponent, situational leverage, even luck. The way DVOA is measured is through percentages. For example, the Seahawks and Broncos ranked first and second in overall DVOA during the regular season, with scores of 40.1% and 32.8% respectively. This means that the Seahawks were 40.1% better than the average team, and the Broncos were 32.8% better than the average team. To put this in perspective, the Seahawks’ 40.1% overall DVOA is the fifth best all time. Additionally, it is interesting to note that this is the first time since 1999 that the top two teams in DVOA are also the No. 1 seeds in each conference. Finally, a version of DVOA called weighted DVOA adjusts for time of the year. In essence it means that more recent games matter more.

To start, I am going to hash it all out for both offenses and defenses, and then do the comparing afterwards. Some of these stats can get a bit confusing so bear with me.

Broncos Offense

Denver’s offense was unstoppable this year. It scored the most points in NFL history and was dominant in most categories. A couple stats to illustrate how good they were are as follows:

• The gap in points per game between the Broncos (37.9), and the second place team (Bears at 27.8), is almost the same as the gap between the Bears and the 30^th best scoring offense, the Buccaneers at 18 per game.
• They averaged over 40 yards per game more than the second best team in that category
• Their offensive DVOA of 33.7% was the sixth best all-time

To go more in-depth, the Broncos passing DVOA was first in the league, but rushing DVOA was only 10^th. Additionally, they faced the third easiest defensive schedule according to Football Outsiders, and only faced four teams in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA (but played five games because they played the Chiefs twice). In these games however, Manning and the Broncos’ dominance wasn’t deterred even slightly, as the team averaged 38.2 points per game and Manning averaged 376.2 yards and 3.6 touchdowns. He destroyed defenses all year and top ranked units were no different. Manning and the Broncos were seemingly unstoppable all year on offense, and for those who say they have not been as good in the playoffs, you are wrong. They may have averaged less points per game than their season average, but their points per possession is actually up from their season average, there have simply been less possessions so far in these playoffs. There is hope for the Seahawks however, as the Broncos offense had a historic DVOA of 33.7% as I already mentioned, but their weighted DVOA (which remember reflects how teams play at the end of the season) was only 27.1%. This figure was still good for first in the league, but was less than 1% above New England. To sum that all up, there are positives and negatives for the Seahawks: the Broncos offense was better at the beginning of the season than it was at the end, but it is still historically great and has actually been better in the postseason than in the regular season. Hmm. Tough to figure out. But it will become easier as we go along.

Seahawks Offense

The Seahawks offense was good but not great this season. Early in the year, when the offense was clicking, the ‘Hawks were hovering between second and third in points per game, but they finished the season tied for eighth with a Packers squad that was without their starting quarterback for over a month. DVOA agrees with the eye-test, the Seahawks offense was better earlier in the season. Their offensive DVOA was seventh at 9.4%, but their weighted DVOA was ninth, at 8.7%. This isn’t a massive decline by any means, but it does go to show that the ‘Hawks offense got worse. This news is even worse when one considers that the Seahawks were fourth in offensive DVOA last season, Russell Wilson’s rookie year. As expected however, the Seahawks were more balanced on offense than the Broncos this season, as they were eighth and seventh in passing and rushing DVOA respectively. This could be good news if there is snow during the Super Bowl, as running games become more important in those types of conditions.

Russell Wilson will need to bring his "A" game if the Seahawks want to win on Sunday.

PaperTreiger

In contrast with the Broncos, the Seahawks offense played against the ninth toughest defensive schedule that included 11 games (compared to Denver’s five), against team in the top half of defensive DVOA. In these games however, Russell Wilson only averaged 205 yards per game and only 1.63 touchdowns. While these statistics really don’t look great on paper, especially compared to Manning’s, they are actually right at Wilson’s season averages. With a run game and defense like the Seahawks have, consistency like Wilson portrayed is exactly what they needed. 

One of the things that concerns me most about the Seahawks’ offensive struggles as of late is Wilson’s lack of rushing. In the final seven games of the regular season, Wilson only averaged 24 yards rushing on just over four carries per game, compared to his season averages of 36 yards on six carries. Furthermore, in the playoffs, Wilson is only averaging four carries per game and eight yards. Not good. I think Wilson plays better when he can run anyways as it means he is reacting more as opposed to over-thinking.

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Now That Tanaka Is Gone, What Do the Mariners Do Next?

By Jackson Safon

Today, Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven year, $155 million deal with the New York Yankees. The deal includes an opt-out clause after four years and a full no-trade clause. These figures are just monstrous. I wanted the Mariners to sign Tanaka as much as anyone, but these numbers are just ridiculous. I was hoping the M’s could get him for around six years, $120 million. That is still an expensive price, but much more reasonable than his actual contract, which when combined with the $20 million posting fee the Yankees will have to pay Tanaka’s Japanese team, equals the amount the Mariners are paying Felix Hernandez. Is Tanaka worth that to you? Yeah, me neither.

But now that Tanaka has signed, it is time for the Mariners to make their next move. The next logical step is to sign a starter, because as of right now, the Mariners only have four starters in Felix, Iwakuma, Walker, and Paxton. The three top starting pitchers on the market are Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ervin Santana. Garza is my top choice for a number of reasons, namely because he is the only of the three that wouldn’t require draft pick compensation. All three are great pitchers, but I think Garza has the best combination of consistency and skill. Ubaldo Jiminez was the best of the three in his prime, but his questionable mechanics have left him wildly inconsistent. Ervin Santana is quite good as well, but is asking for far too much money for his value as a pitcher.

Garza has a strong ERA, WHIP, and strikeout ratio. The biggest knock on Garza is his injury history, which is fair, because he hasn’t had 30 starts in a season since 2011. That being said, he had a period of four straight 30+ start seasons from 2008-2011. Furthermore, he has fantastic stuff when he is healthy, as was displayed during his 2011 standout season with the Cubs and his no-hitter in 2010 with the Rays.

The Mariners haven't been linked to Matt Garza, but he makes the most sense out of the three elite pitchers available.

Baltimore Sun

The other big hole in the Mariners lineup remains a right-fielder. The biggest outfield free agents in Shin-Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran have all signed with new teams, so it seems one of the few logical options in free agency is Nelson Cruz. I am not a big Cruz fan and especially not for the value he is asking. I would be fine with signing him for a contract around 3 years/$45 million, but not much more. I am much more on board with making a trade for an outfielder, whether it be with Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, or even one of our two young pitchers.

It remains to be seen what Jack Z and management will do, but now that Tanaka is off the board, it is time to make some moves, and a starter is the biggest hole to fill. 

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Why the Seahawks Matchup So Well Against the Broncos' Offense

By Marshall Cherrington

Seahawks fans are lucky: they get the privilege of facing off against the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl. While the high-powered offense might be scary, the Seahawks could not have asked for a better matchup. For every offensive weapon that the Broncos boast, the Seahawks have a piece to counter it. Whether it is in the trenches or the secondary, there is no Broncos player that does not have an equal on the Seahawks defense. However, there is an exception. One weapon that the Seahawks can’t match, that weapon being the best quarterback of the past decade, is Peyton Manning. No quarterback in this day and age is smarter or more analytical in his decision making than Manning. There’s only so much one player can do for a team though. Despite the superiority of Manning, there are 10 other players on the offensive side of the ball who all combine to make more of an impact than Manning himself, although it’s close. Here are some key matchups to watch when the Seahawks’ defense takes the field against the Broncos’ offense on Sunday, February 5^th.

Wes Welker vs. Walter Thurmond/Jeremy Lane

There is no doubt here that this matchup is an advantage for the Broncos. Welker is a seasoned wide receiver and has consistently proven his worth throughout his long career. The small receiver has made his money by lining up in the slot, a position which is covered by Jeremy Lane and Walter Thurmond in the nickel package. Welker has above average hands and can escape you in an instant with his elite quickness. He runs very pure routes and is excellent at gaining separation, especially in small spaces. Welker has had a little history with drops though, especially in the Super Bowl when he was with the Patriots, and this will be something to watch. When Welker comes over the middle as he does often times, Kam Chancellor or Earl Thomas will be there more times than not. We all saw Michael Crabtree drop a pass this past weekend when Crabtree saw Kam Chancellor lining him up in his sights. The same fate could come down on Welker, but Welker has more experience in these situations than Michael Crabtree. Thurmond and Lane should be able to stay with Welker pretty well, but they likely will need some safety help when Welker decides to go over the top. Earl Thomas should help with this tremendously.

Wes Welker could have a big Super Bowl Sunday, but not if Walter Thurmond and Jeremy Lane have anything to say about it.

Getty Images

Demaryius Thomas vs. Richard Sherman

If you’re looking for a fun matchup to watch, this will be the one you’re looking for. Sherman is the best corner in the NFL, and Thomas is arguably a top five receiver in the league. It’s the matchup of the best of the best. Both players stand at 6’3”, with Thomas having the edge when it comes to speed. Sherman is obviously a physical corner and this should make up for his detriment in the speed category. Thomas has great hands, but we all know Sherman has great hands as well. Just ask Michael Crabtree. I would say Sherman has the edge in this matchup because of his length and jumping ability, but Thomas can also go up and get it. It’ll be interesting to see how many times Peyton Manning targets Thomas when Sherman is covering him. Kaepernick only targeted Sherman twice, but Manning is clearly the better of the two quarterbacks. After I saw the Peyton Manning pass to Thomas for a touchdown over Alfonzo Dennard in the AFC Championship game, I immediately thought of how Sherman would have played that ball. In my opinion, Sherman would have picked that off, or at least would have tipped the ball with his long arms. Sherman times his jumps perfectly when going up for the ball, and this is why I think he’ll be so affective against Demaryius Thomas.

The matchup between Richard Sherman and Demaryius Thomas will be a fun one to watch.

USA Today Sports

Eric Decker vs. Byron Maxwell

This is a matchup where I think the Seahawks actually have an advantage. Decker is a receiver who won’t always burn you with his speed, but will run great routes on you. He’s had problems with drops in the past and even though it may look like he hauls in a pass at first, he doesn’t always hold on to the ball. I think this weakness of his will be exposed with Maxwell on him. Maxwell does a great job on not giving up on plays and has long arms just like Sherman to knock balls away from opposing receivers. Maxwell, with a little more development, could be the second coming of Richard Sherman. But he’s definitely not there quite yet. He’s not as lengthy or as tall as Sherman, but definitely has the speed to keep up with opposing receivers. The attribute of Maxwell’s that looks most like Sherman’s is his physicality. It’s what makes the Seattle corners so good. So if Maxwell is physical with Decker and can knock the former Minnesota star off of his routes, I think this matchup will work out to be an advantage for the Seahawks. Peyton Manning won’t be able to pick on any of these corners.

Byron Maxwell has really stepped his play up towards the end of the season.

Getty Images

Julius Thomas vs. KJ Wright/Kam Chancellor

Julius Thomas fits the mold of what seems like all current tight ends that have become stars: he’s an ex-college basketball player. What does this mean? It means two things. It means that Thomas is fast for his position and has great hands, because if you play basketball in college, you need great hands. Thomas has a great amount of quickness and agility for such a big guy (6’5” 250 lbs.). He’s caught 12 touchdowns on the year and he’s the main guy the Seahawks will need to watch when the Broncos are in the red zone. That being said, the Seahawks have the best red zone defense in the league and have dealt with similar targets already this season in Jimmy Graham (twice), Coby Fleenor, Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis. Kam Chancellor has done an excellent job on all of these targets as he shows as much strength on the field as all of these tight ends do. Earl Thomas has done a great job of coming down from his free safety position and breaking up passes intended for tight ends as well (remember the Saints game). KJ Wright is less of an assurance guarding Thomas since he has missed a significant amount of time over the past month. He looked very rusty against the 49ers, but with a bye week leading up to the Super Bowl, he should be able to gain back some of his old form. If the Saints game is any indication, the Seahawks should do just fine against Julius Thomas and the tight end position in the Super Bowl.

Make sure to stay tuned for more Broncos-Seahawks analysis in the coming days.

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